Every risk number, price and backtest is a statement about probability. This skill builds the ideas with short checks (numbers you compute, formulas you fill in, steps you put in order) and finance examples: a default screen that is mostly wrong, the standard error of a mean return, regimes as a Markov chain. Three Python topics on random variables, sampling and Monte Carlo are part of the syllabus. It ends with a code lab that tests whether a normal model fits real stock returns and how badly it misses the tails.
